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WE NEED SCIENCE AND EFFECTIVE REGULATION -- BECAUSE, BY ITS NATURE, THE FUTURE IS DANGEROUS

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“It is the business of the future to be dangerous; and it is among the merits of science that it equips the future for its duties.”                -- Alfred North Whitehead

Professor Whitehead, a noted, early 20th Century British mathematician and philospher, created a discipline called process philosophy that echoed the native American “seventh generation” standard en.wikipedia.org/...for environmental stewardship, and predated the later environmental movement's regard for wholistics. He argued that, "There is urgency in coming to see the world as a web of interrelated processes of which we are integral parts, so that all of our choices and actions have consequences for the world around us."

Whitehead was a harbinger of today's world, which gallops sometimes incomprehensibly toward complexity and the "technological singularity"​. But we don't just need science to contend with all the change and challenge before us; we also need a fresh regard tor the merits of sensible government regulation to ensure wise choices and clear-headed policies. Let's consider one small piece of our world to see just why regulation is now indispensable: the amazing yet taken-for-granted lithium ion battery.

It's only slightly overstating the issue to suggest that the many airline passengers innocently carrying cell phones or or other wireless devices aboard their flights constitute a (I stress this word) potential threat greater than that posed by willful terrorists. Not a likely threat, mind you. But read on to see how rapid technological advancement creates unintended consequences even while providing undeniable benefits.

My wife and I flew roundtrip between Milwaukee and Boston the first week in October on Southwest Airlines. Readying for departure on one of the flights, attendants reminded passengers to put their cell phones into "airplane" mode -- still turned on but with limited network functions. Grabbing my attention was a new and special exception for anyone carrying a Samsung Galaxy Note 7: Those high-end smart phones would have to be shut down completely for the duration.

That was because certain production models of the Note 7, only introduced to the market in August, had been recalled by the manufacturer within a couple of weeks, after 35 users complained that their new phones had caught fire while recharging, apparently due to overheating lithium-ion batteries.

Note 7 meltdown reports accelerated quickly. In fact, a Note 7 began popping and smoking on another Southwest Airlines aircraft on Oct. 5, the day after we returned to Milwaukee on another flight without incident. That latest incident, still under investigation, forced the evacuation of the Southwest flight while it was still on the ground in Louisville. The cause of the incident is still under investigation.

The particular production model in that incident reportedly was among the replacement handsets that the South Korean company had provided to owners who had experienced battery problems. Within days, all Samsung Note 7 phones were recalled and the electronics giant announced it was halting production and sale of the model.

Rechargeable lithium ion batteries have enabled the portable electronics revolution because they are lightweight, relatively small in size and provide long-lasting power compared to other batteries. To someone from the 1960s, their benefits might seem like something from "Star Trek." These batteries have long since become the norm in portable power for cell phones. But all that energy packed into a small physical space comes with risks. The batteries can overheat if they are manufactured with defects, if damaged, or if packaged improperly, causing overheating.

The Note 7 isn't the first electronic device to exhibit battery overheating. Some laptops carrying lithium-ion batteries have also spontaneously combusted. Indeed airlines are now under strict packaging and delivery orders after air-freight shipments of lithium ion batteries apparently caught fire in the hold of a UPS plane, possibly causing its crash. But dozens of incidents on passenger or cargo airliners since the 1990s have raised red flags. In one fatal crash, the cargo included 80,000 lithium-ion batteries packed tightly. Such massive shipments no longer are allowed.

Lithium ion batteries are now regarded as "dangerous" goods from a shipping perspective. But billions of people daily carry around many electronic devices -- MP3 players, cameras, phones, laptops, tablets and more -- that rely on these batteries. Large units even are built into an increasing number of hybrid and all-electric automobiles.

Ironically, some terrorists have built bombs using cheap cell phones as the triggering devices -- not because the lithium ion batteries might catch fire, but because the phone can serve as a cheap yet very handy timer or remote-control receiver for an external package of explosives.

Could terrorists build bombs just by combining a bunch of these batteries? Possibly, but there are many easier and cheaper ways to produce explosive devices if you're trying to hurt lots of people, and if you want to evade security checks. Then again, airliners are tempting targets, with many people essentially trapped on large aircraft that can do further damage if they crash in heavily populated areas.

Are lithium ion batteries going to be banned? Probably not. They seem generally safe when used, shipped or stored according to specification. Better batteries are likely to be perfected, although the development curve is becoming steeper. The marketplace and consumers are demanding more functionality in ever-smaller packages, so researchers and manufacturers are pushing hard. It's unlikely a planeful of individually carried cell phones or laptops or tablets will all combust at the same time, or even just a few of them, but even one such device catching fire in flight is one too many.

And the lithium-ion battery challenge is just one small example in our wholistic world. You could run through similar analyses for any number of recent and even older technologies, including, to name just a few, petroleum transport, water delivery systems, drone aircraft, pesticides, and opioid drugs. Airliners themselves have encountered unexpected engineering failures in each new iteration, from the advent of turboprops in the 1950s to the earliest jetliners and on to the most recent Boeing passenger liner. Two space shuttles disintegrated in flight despite NASA’s exhaustive tests and checks.

The unexpected will happen, because the future is by its nature dangerous. The real fix is for citizens to insist that governments require sufficient testing and set high safety standards for making and using new technologies, especially those for which there are as yet few if any obvious analogs or known downsides. The Food and Drug Administration is for example sometimes criticized for its lengthy testing and approval procedures, and yet lawmakers have not seen fit to expand staffing commensurate with burgeoning markets and byzantine new formulations and devices.

All this speaks to the importance of regulation, a bad word among too many politicians and citizens these days. But the world is becoming more complex, and technological sophistication threatens to outstrip official oversight in many industries, from drugs to food to water and, yes, to electronics.

So let's not panic, but let's be careful out there, following the rules, staying informed, and letting your elected officials know that you expect them to support strong regulations to keep citizens safe.


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